2017 Real Estate Market Update

National and Regional Single Family Market

According to NAR, existing single family homes sales have increased with projected annual sales of 5,810,000 units in November 2017 annually 2017 versus 5,600,000 units in November 2016.  Statistics in the South have increased slightly with annual sales in November 2017 of 2,340,000 versus 2,250,000 in November 2016.

Nat Existing Sales

As of November 2017, there was a 3.4 month supply of inventory available, which was down 9.7% from the previous year, nationwide.

National Sales Prices of Existing Homes

Meanwhile, the median nationwide existing single family home price was $248,000 in November 2017, which is up 5.8% from a year ago.  The median price in the South was $216,200, which was up 4.8% from the previous year.

The average nationwide existing single family home price was $289,900 in November 2017, reflecting a 4.8% increase from a year ago.  The average price in the South was up 3.1% from the previous year.

Florida Single Family Market

We relied on the data prepared by the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR) to provide an overall health of the Florida single family market.  This data is as follows:

As can be seen in the following charts, sales of single family homes at its height (in recent years) increased in 2015, compared with 2014 numbers.  Sales in Second Quarter 2017 were 79,888 compared to 71,723 in Second Quarter 2016.  This represents a 3.7% increase. Recently, sales of single family homes have decreased slightly to only 67,811, but remain higher than the First Quarter of 2017 and Forth Quarter of 2016.

STATE OF FLORIDA HISTORICAL CLOSED SALES FIGURES

Fl Closed Sales

Although there was a slight decrease in the number of sales, pricing has increased in Third Quarter of 2017, up 6.7% from the same time period in 2016.

STATE OF FLORIDA MEDIAN SALES PRICE FIGURES

FL Med Sales Price 2

Per FAR figures, the overall median sales price continues to increase.  However, the last two quarters have remained the same at $240,000.

Tampa Bay Single Family Market

The following data from the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA (includes Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties) was prepared by the Florida Association of  Realtors (FAR).  As can be seen in the following charts, median sales price of single family homes have increased in 2016 over 2015 to a high in the Third Quarter of 2017.

TAMPA AREA CLOSED SALES FIGURES

Tampa Closed Sales 

As can be seen in the above exhibit, sales volume dipped slightly to 12,198 single family homes from the Second Quarter of 2017.

TAMPA AREA MEDIAN SALES PRICE FIGURES

Tampa Median Sales 2

Pricing of homes has stabilized with a median sales price in the Third Quarter of 2017 of $225,000, representing a 9.8% increase from Third Quarter of 2016.

CONCLUSION

The Tampa Bay MSA area experienced large growth in residential housing during the residential “boom” period of the early to mid 2000’s. Since the beginning of 2013, the market has shown increases in both pricing and sales figures.  These figures continue to show improvement.  However, Hillsborough County is becoming more built out with less vacant land available for development.

In the Real Estate Market?

KW1784102f20KW.jpgYou should consider using a realtor.  I could save you money especially with new home builders and it does not cost you anything.  So why not? Let me save you money!!!  If you are interested in buying real estate (new home, existing home, or commercial property), please contact me (Alan Lane with Keller Williams Realty a.t 2119 W Brandon Blvd, Brandon, Florida 33511).  As a life long resident of Central Florida, I can help you find the right property for you whether it is in Lakeland or as far south as Sarasota.  The Keller Williams offices of  ”Suburban Tampa” include the offices in Brandon, Plant City, Fishhawk Ranch, and our newest office in Valrico.  My email address is alanlane66@gmail.com, or call me at 813.205.9280.  If you are just starting your search, you can search the MLS for real estate opportunities on my website at this link

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Its Time to Sell and Buy your Dream Home with Your Stock Market Returns.

Historical S&P 500 Return

money-7According to Scott Snider with www.mellenmoney.com,  approximately 10% is the average return for the S&P 500 since its inception back in 1928.  Adjusted for inflation the “real return” is more like 7%.  Also worth noting that nearly half of the gains from the S&P 500 resulted from dividends.

2017 S&P 500 Return

The 2017 S&P 500 Return: Buy, Hold and Reinvest

The above quoted numbers are accurate if you bought the index at the opening price on January 3rd, 2017 and sold at the closing price on December 29, 2017. If you’d prefer the numbers buying at the December 30, 2016 closing price the return would be +19.42% and +21.83%, respectively.

Here are the index price returns:

Price Return From
Open Close Gain
Jan 3, 2017 Start 2251.57 2673.61 18.74%
Dec 30, 2016 End 2238.83 2673.61 19.42%

Following are the dividend reinvested returns:

Dividend Reinvested Return From
Open Close Gain
Jan 3, 2017 Start 4303.12 5212.76 21.14%
Dec 30, 2016 End 4278.66 5212.76 21.83%

Whichever set of return time-spans you prefer, the message is the same “If you invest in funds or stocks that pay a dividend you’ll have to choose what to do with the payouts. Simply quoting price returns without regard to real returns in cash form doesn’t reveal the true impact of an investment.”  Either way, 2017 was a very good year for stocks with gains doubling histroical returns.

Source on the 2017 S&P 500 Return Calculations

These numbers come from S&P Dow Jones Indices, the owner of the S&P 500 Index. They have both the classic S&P 500 price index as well as the dividend reinvested numbers from 1987 forward.

2018 S&P 500 Return Projections

According to UBS, the S&P 500 could surge 18 percent this year, which raised its 2018 target to 3,150, the highest on Wall Street, only three trading days into the year.  The Dow Jones industrial average already crossed 25,000

The S&P 500’s gain on the year will be 17.8 percent according to the new UBS target and based on the benchmark’s closing value of 2017. Taking into account the rally to start 2018, the index will rise 15.5 percent from here, according to the UBS target. The firm’s previous 2018 forecast for the S&P 500 was 2,900.

“We assume solid growth,” said Keith Parker, the chief U.S. equity strategist at UBS, in an appearance on CNBC’s “Halftime Report.” “We do expect a large pickup in buybacks and M&A.”

What’s Next?

What are you goingto do with all that money?  If you want to find your dream home in the Tampa Bay area (Florida), you should contact Alan!!!  I can help you find it.  I love helping people find that dream home.  Additionally , yKW1784102f20KW.jpgou should consider using a realtor.  I could save you money especially with new home builders and it does not cost you anything.  So why not? Let me save you money!!!  If you are interested in buying real estate (new home, existing home, or commercial property), please contact me (Alan Lane with Keller Williams Realty a.t 2119 W Brandon Blvd, Brandon, Florida 33511).  As a life long resident of Central Florida, I can help you find the right property for you whether it is in Lakeland or as far south as Sarasota.  The Keller Williams offices of  ”Suburban Tampa” include the offices in Brandon, Plant City, Fishhawk Ranch, and our newest office in Valrico.  My email address is alanlane66@gmail.com, or call me at 813.205.9280.  If you are just starting your search, you can search the MLS for real estate opportunities on my website at this link

 

Valrico Florida Residental Sales By the Numbers

I get alot of questions about when to buy or is the market too high?  Well I wanted to show you some of the numbers in one of my favorite bedroom communities in eastern Hillsborough County (Florida), which is Valrico (zip codes 33594, 33595, and 33596). Valrico is just east of the better known Brandon community and features some of the best schools in area.

Valrico

Income Statistics

We have reviewed income statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010 Summary File 1 and Esri forecasts for 2017.  Based on these figures in the exhibit below, the Valrico market is very affluent market compared to both Hillsborough County as well as the state of Florida.

2017 Income Comparison

Home Price Trends

Did you know that historically in most communities in Hillsborough County that the price range under $100,000 is the most popular according to MLS Statistics?  The second price range is between $150,000 and $300,000.  As the sales price increases, the number of sales decrease.

Valrico Sales by Number of Sales

As you can see by the below exhibit, Valrico’s historical price trend has remain steady over the past several years.  As of July 2017, the median sales price in Valrico was $232,500.  Based on this MLS Data, there is no reason to suggest a housing bubble or market peak in the near future.

Valrico Historical Sales Price Trend

Rental Rate Comparison

The Valrico residential rental market is also as strong as the residential sales market. According to the U.S. Census Bureau and 2010-2014 American Community Survey, Valrico’s median contract rent is above both Hillsborough County asa well as the state of Florida.

Median Rent

How Much House Can You Afford Instead of Renting?

There are several financing options for home buyers (i.e. conventional, FHA, VA, etc.) and there is a difference changing the term (length of the loan).  Accoding to Rateplug, here is a rough estimate of what a $200,000 house payment would be:

Sample Lender

*FHA loans allow for a 3.5% Down Payment. ARM (Adjustable Rate Mortgages) loan payment & interest rates will change during term.

Real estate taxes assume the property has a homestead.

Ins./HOA Dues = Home Owners Insurance/Dues (can vary)

APR = Annual Percentage Rate. ARM Rates may increase after consummation.

PMI = Private Mortgage Insurance

Conclusion

There is no evidence of a market bubble in the near term as we are growing at a sustainable rate.  So the time to buy is now.  Especially considering the cost of renting versus buying.  We did not even address the benefits of writing off interest and real estate taxes on your income taxes!!!  Stop throwing money out the window and let me sell you a home today.

KW1784102f20KW_thumb.jpgYou should consider using a realtor.  I could save you money especially with new home builders and it does not cost you anything.  So why not?  If you are interested in buying real estate (new home, existing home, or commercial property), please contact me (Alan Lane with Keller Williams Realty a.t 2119 W Brandon Blvd, Brandon, Florida  33511).  As a life long resident of Central Florida, I can help you find the right property for you whether it is in Lakeland or as far south as Sarasota.  The Keller Williams offices of  ”Suburban Tampa” include the offices in Brandon, Plant City, Fishhawk Ranch, and our newest office in Valrico.  My email address is alanlane66@gmail.com, or call me at 813.205.9280.  If you are just starting your search, you can search the MLS for real estate opportunities on my website at this link

Waterset Townhomes in Apollo Beach, Florida

Waterset TownhomesWaterset Townhomes are very affordable townhomes with reasonable maintenance fees  in eastern Hillsborough County, Apollo Beach, Florida.  This location is between the Interstate Corridor and Tampa Bay.  It is also conveniently located to restaurants and shopping as well as Tampa’s business district and Gulf Coast beaches.  Some of the property highlights include:

  • Pricing from $194,490s – $233,990s
  • Square footage from 1,756 to 2,185
  • Bedrooms from 3 to 4
  • Bathrooms from 2 to 3
  • Amenities include  a resort-style pool, splash park, playground, picnic area, cafe, outdoor fitness station, and a fitness center.
  • CDDs are only $80.46 per month with low HOAs at only $6.08 per month.
  • The Townhome maintenance fee is only $179.00 per month.

Per Lennar, the Schools for this subdivision include:

  • Inez Doby Elementary School
  • Eisenhower Middle School
  • East Bay High School

Although the above schools are the currently assigned to the subject development, I would suggest that any potential buyer check the Hillsborough County website to verify the schools and more information (school grades, school calendar, etc.). If you are relocating to Hillsborough County, you can find your school at click here as well as the school calendar at click here.

Unlike most builders, Lennar offer a home that has everything included.  What does that mean for the buyer?  In the case of upgrades, it is simply a matter of over pricing them above what you could get done from an individual subcontractor.  I’m not saying that Lennar does not offer upgrades, but most of the “typical”upgrades in the modern home as “granite” countertops are included.  Whereas, a lot of builder charge higher prices at their “design centers”.  This is just something to think about when deciding on purchasing a home.

There are several “spec” homes available.  Home builders in the Tampa Bay Residential Market have completed homes available with some real savings like discounts off the original sales price and generous closing costs available to potential home buyers in communities like Riverview and Dover, Florida.  Sales prices onSpec” (speculation) are often the best places to get the best deals.  These homes are built by builders without an intended purchaser in mind (Hence the builder is speculating that they will find a builder to buy the home).  There are two spec townhomes available (Ironwood and Princewood models).  The following is the Ironwood Model:

Ironwood

Ironwood 1st Flr

Ironwood 2nd Flr

The following is the Princewood Model:

Princewood

Princewood 1st Flr

Princewood 2nd Flr

Front Elevations and Floor Plans provided by Lennar Homes

KW1784102f20KW.jpgYou should consider using a realtor.  I could save you money especially with new home builders and it does not cost you anything.  So why not?  If you are interested in buying real estate (new home, existing home, or commercial property), please contact me (Alan Lane with Keller Williams Realty a.t 2119 W Brandon Blvd, Brandon, Florida  33511).  As a life long resident of Central Florida, I can help you find the right property for you whether it is in Lakeland or as far south as Sarasota.  The Keller Williams offices of  ”Suburban Tampa” include the offices in Brandon, Plant City, Fishhawk Ranch, and our newest office in Valrico.  My email address is alanlane66@gmail.com, or call me at 813.205.9280.  If you are just starting your search, you can search the MLS for real estate opportunities on my website at this link

Hawks Landing in Ruskin, FLorida

Lido Beach MorningHawks Landing is a new home community in eastern Hillsborough County, Tampa Bay Florida.  This location is located east of Tampa Bay and the Interstate 75 Corridor.   However, it is still conveniently located to restaurants and shopping as well as Tampa’s business district and Gulf Coast beaches.  With 7 spacious floor plans, you’re sure to find a home that suits you at an affordable price in this new subdivision. These single-family homes come with a wide variety of unique features to fit whatever you want in home.  Some of the property highlights include:

  • Pricing from $175,990s – $249,990s
  • Square footage from 1,555 to 3,326
  • Bedrooms from 3 to 6
  • Bathrooms from 2 to 3
  • CDDs at 167.11 per month with low HOAs ($6.27 per month)

Per Lennar, the Schools for this subdivision include:

  • Cypress Creek Elementary
  • Shields Middle
  • Lennard High

Although the above schools are the currently assigned to the subject development, I would suggest that any potential buyer check the Hillsborough County website to verify the schools and more information (school grades, school calendar, etc.). If you are relocating to Hillsborough County, you can find your school at click here as well as the school calendar at click here.

Unlike most builders, Lennar offer a home that has everything included.  What does that mean for the buyer?  In the case of upgrades, it is simply a matter of over pricing them above what you could get done from an individual subcontractor.  I’m not saying that Lennar does not offer upgrades, but most of the “typical”upgrades in the modern home as “granite” countertops are included.  Whereas, a lot of builder charge higher prices at their “design centers”.  This is just something to think about when deciding on purchasing a home.

There are several “spec” homes available.  Home builders in the Tampa Bay Residential Market have completed homes available with some real savings like discounts off the original sales price and generous closing costs available to potential home buyers in communities like Riverview and Ruskin, Florida.  Sales prices onSpec” (speculation) are often the best places to get the best deals.  These homes are built by builders without an intended purchaser in mind (Hence the builder is speculating that they will find a builder to buy the home).  There are seven spec homes available (Harrisburg, Hartford, Dover, Providence, and Raleigh models).  The following is the Harrisburg Model:

Harrisburg Front

Harrisburg first flr

The following is the Hartford Model:

Hartford Front

HARTFORD fIREST fLOOR

The following is the Dover Model:

Dover Front

Dover 1st Floor

The following is the Providence Model:

Providence

Providence 1st Floor

Providence 2nd Flr

The following is the Raleigh Model:

Raleigh

Raleigh 1st Flr

Raleigh 2nd Flr

Front Elevations and Floor Plans provided by Lennar Homes

KW1784102f20KW.jpgYou should consider using a realtor.  I could save you money especially with new home builders and it does not cost you anything.  So why not?  If you are interested in buying real estate (new home, existing home, or commercial property), please contact me (Alan Lane with Keller Williams Realty a.t 2119 W Brandon Blvd, Brandon, Florida  33511).  As a life long resident of Central Florida, I can help you find the right property for you whether it is in Lakeland or as far south as Sarasota.  The Keller Williams offices of  ”Suburban Tampa” include the offices in Brandon, Plant City, Fishhawk Ranch, and our newest office in Valrico.  My email address is alanlane66@gmail.com, or call me at 813.205.9280.  If you are just starting your search, you can search the MLS for real estate opportunities on my website at this link

Granite vs. Quartz

Azalea-Kitchen_thumb.jpgMost of the new homes in the Tampa Bay residential market have granite countertops as standard rather than an option.  Some of the home builders are offers Quartz as an updated option. Granite is a common type of igneous rock that is granular and phaneritic in texture. Granites can be predominantly white, pink, or gray in color. Granitic rock is widely distributed throughout the continental crust.  Below are some different colors of Granites:

Various_granites

cropped-hamilton-kitchen-river-bend.jpgDid you know that Granite is actually porous?  Whereas, Quartz is not porous and thus requires no periodic sealing like Granite with the look of any quartz countertop compares to granite.  It is also heat-resistant.  Since quartz is an engineered product, consisting of a minimum of 93% quartz and 7% epoxy binder and dyes.  An engineered product is s a composite material made of crushed stone bound together by an adhesive.  The two common stones used in producing these products are marble and quartz.  It requires no sealer has the advantage in that it requires no harsh chemicals to seal, nor does it emit harmful chemicals into the air, making it potentially more environmentally friendly.  Because quartz countertops are manufactured, the color and pattern possibilities are limitless—including varieties that are almost identical to granite or marble.  Because of the ease of care, Quartz is becoming more popular.  For example, I know that Lennar now offers quartz as an option.  If you buying a home and you want to get the most for your money, you should consider Quartz.

KW1784102f20KW.jpgYou should consider using a realtor.  I could save you money especially with new home builders and it does not cost you anything.  So why not?  If you are interested in buying real estate (new home, existing home, or commercial property), please contact me (Alan Lane with Keller Williams Realty a.t 2119 W Brandon Blvd, Brandon, Florida  33511).  As a life long resident of Central Florida, I can help you find the right property for you whether it is in Lakeland or as far south as Sarasota.  The Keller Williams offices of  ”Suburban Tampa” include the offices in Brandon, Plant City, Fishhawk Ranch, and our newest office in Valrico.  My email address is alanlane66@gmail.com, or call me at 813.205.9280.  If you are just starting your search, you can search the MLS for real estate opportunities on my website at this link

 

Little Harbor in Ruskin, Florida

img_6055Whether you are still working or retired, you can have it all in a home?  You can have beautiful views of Tampa Bay coupled with two-story homes in a Cape Cod atmosphere in Tampa Bay.  Well You can in one of Lennar’s newest waterfront communities.  These homes will have direct access to Tampa Bay with the convenience of being able to accommodate own docks and boat lifts.   Some of the property highlights include:

  • Pricing from $514,990s – $669,990s
  • Square footage from 2,618 to 3,835
  • Bedrooms from 4 to 5
  • Bathrooms from 2.5 to 3
  • Amenities include a basketball court, fitness center, marina, playground, sport court, swimming pool, tennis court, and volleyball court.

Since schools districts can change all the time, we suggest that a potential buyer should verified the schools prior to purchasing.  Per Lennar, the Schools for this subdivsion include:

  • Thompson Elementary School
  • Beth Shields Middle School
  • Dr. Earl Lennard High School

There are seven spec homes available (Jupiter, Sanibel, and Amelia models).  Spec homes are homes built without a buyer and usually offer better than average deals as the builder/developer does not want to keep them for very long.

Amelia Front Elevation

Amelia Model

Amelia First Flr

Amelia Second Flr

The following is the Sanibel:

Sanibel

Sanibel First Flr

Sanibel 2nd Flr

The following is the Jupiter:

 Jupiter

Jupiter 1st Flr

Jupiter 2nd Flr

Front Elevations and Floor Plans provided by Lennar Homes

KW1784102f20KW_thumb.jpgYou should consider using a realtor.  I could save you money especially with new home builders and it does not cost you anything.  So why not?  If you are interested in buying real estate (new home, existing home, or commercial property), please contact me (Alan Lane with Keller Williams Realty a.t 2119 W Brandon Blvd, Brandon, Florida  33511).  As a life long resident of Central Florida, I can help you find the right property for you whether it is in Lakeland or as far south as Sarasota.  The Keller Williams offices of  ”Suburban Tampa” include the offices in Brandon, Plant City, Fishhawk Ranch, and our newest office in Valrico.  My email address is alanlane66@gmail.com, or call me at 813.205.9280.  If you are just starting your search, you can search the MLS for real estate opportunities on my website at this link